Mobility Based SIR Model For Pandemics -- With Case Study Of COVID-19

Abstract: In the last decade, humanity has faced many different pandemics such as SARS, H1N1, and presently novel coronavirus (COVID-19). On one side, scientists are focusing on vaccinations, and on the other side, there is a need to propose models that can help us in understanding the spread of these pandemics as it can help governmental and other concerned agencies to be well prepared, especially from pandemics, which spreads faster like COVID-19. The main reason for some epidemic turning into pandemics is the connectivity among different regions of the world, which makes it easier to affect a wider geographical area, often worldwide. In addition, the population distribution and social coherence in the different regions of the world is non-uniform. Thus, once the epidemic enters a region, then the local population distribution plays an important role. Inspired by these ideas, we proposed a mobility-based SIR model for epidemics, which especially takes into account pandemic situations. To the best of our knowledge, this model is first of its kind, which takes into account the population distribution and connectivity of different geographic locations across the globe. In addition to presenting the mathematical proof of our model, we have performed extensive simulations using synthetic data to demonstrate our model's generalizability. To demonstrate the wider scope of our model, we used our model to forecast the COVID-19 cases for Estonia.