Hierarchical Bayesian propulsion power models for marine vessels

Abstract: Assessing the magnitude of fuel consumption of marine traffic is a challenging task. The consumption can be reduced by the ways the vessels are operated, to achieve both improved cost efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions. Mathematical models for predicting ships' consumption are in a central role in both of these tasks. Nowadays, many ships are equipped with data collection systems, which enable data-based calibration of the consumption models. Typically this calibration procedure is carried out independently for each particular ship, using only data collected from the ship in question. In this paper, we demonstrate a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach, where we fit a single model over many vessels, with the assumption that the parameters of vessels of same type and similar characteristics (e.g. vessel size) are likely close to each other. The benefits of such an approach are two-fold; 1) we can borrow information about parameters that are not well informed by the vessel-specific data using data from similar ships, and 2) we can use the final hierarchical model to predict the behavior of a vessel from which we don't have any data, based only on its characteristics. In this paper, we discuss the basic concept and present a first simple version of the model. We apply the Stan statistical modeling tool for the model fitting and use real data from 64 cruise ships collected via the widely used commercial Eniram platform. By using Bayesian statistical methods we obtain uncertainties for the model predictions, too. The prediction accuracy of the model is compared to an existing data-free modeling approach.