Projected Development of COVID-19 in Louisiana

Abstract: At the time of writing, Louisiana has the third highest COVID-19 infection per capita in the United States. The state government issued a stay-at-home order effective March 23rd. We analyze the projected spread of COVID-19 in Louisiana without including the effects of the stay-at-home order. We predict that a large fraction of the state population would be infected without the mitigation efforts, and would certainly overwhelm the capacity of Louisiana health care system. We further predict the outcomes with different degrees of reduction in the infection rate. More than 70% of reduction is required to cap the number of infected to under one million.