Longevity Associated Geometry Identified in Satellite Images: Sidewalks, Driveways and Hiking Trails

Abstract: Importance: Following a century of increase, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline in recent decades. Using satellite images and street view images prior work has demonstrated associations of the built environment with income, education, access to care and health factors such as obesity. However, assessment of learned image feature relationships with variation in crude mortality rate across the United States has been lacking. Objective: Investigate prediction of county-level mortality rates in the U.S. using satellite images. Design: Satellite images were extracted with the Google Static Maps application programming interface for 430 counties representing approximately 68.9% of the US population. A convolutional neural network was trained using crude mortality rates for each county in 2015 to predict mortality. Learned image features were interpreted using Shapley Additive Feature Explanations, clustered, and compared to mortality and its associated covariate predictors. Main Outcomes and Measures: County mortality was predicted using satellite images. Results: Predicted mortality from satellite images in a held-out test set of counties was strongly correlated to the true crude mortality rate (Pearson r=0.72). Learned image features were clustered, and we identified 10 clusters that were associated with education, income, geographical region, race and age. Conclusion and Relevance: The application of deep learning techniques to remotely-sensed features of the built environment can serve as a useful predictor of mortality in the United States. Tools that are able to identify image features associated with health-related outcomes can inform targeted public health interventions.