Market states: A new understanding

Abstract: We present the clustering analysis of the financial markets of S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN) markets over a period of 2006-2019 as an example of a complex system. We investigate the statistical properties of correlation matrices constructed from the sliding epochs. The correlation matrices can be classified into different clusters, named as market states based on the similarity of correlation structures. We cluster the S&P 500 market into four and Nikkei 225 into six market states by optimizing the value of intracluster distances. The market shows transitions between these market states and the statistical properties of the transitions to critical market states can indicate likely precursors to the catastrophic events. We also analyze the same clustering technique on surrogate data constructed from average correlations of market states and the fluctuations arise due to the white noise of short time series. We use the correlated Wishart orthogonal ensemble for the construction of surrogate data whose average correlation equals the average of the real data.