Predicting the ecological outcomes of global consumption

Abstract: Mapping pathways to achieving the sustainable development goals requires understanding and predicting how social, economic and political factors impact biodiversity. Trends in demography, economic growth, regional alliances and consumption behaviours can have profound effects on the environment by driving resource use and production. While these distant socio-economic drivers impact species and ecosystems at global scales, for example by driving greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, the most prevalent human impacts on biodiversity manifest through habitat loss and land use change decisions at finer scales. We provide the first integrated ecological-economic analysis pathway capable of supporting both national policy design challenges and global scale assessment of biodiversity risks posed by socio-economic drivers such as population growth, consumption and trade. To achieve this, we provide state-of-the-art integration of economic, land use, and biodiversity modelling, and illustrate its application using two case studies. We evaluate the national-level implications of change in trading conditions under a multi-lateral free trade agreement for the bird biodiversity of Vietnam. We review the implications for land-use and biodiversity under coupled socio-economic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and climate (Resource Concentration Pathways) scenarios for Australia. Our study provides a roadmap for setting up high dimensional integrated analyses foe evaluating global priorities for protecting nature and livelihoods in vulnerable areas with the greatest conflicts for economic, social and environmental opportunities.