Insight into bias in time-stratified case-crossover studies

Abstract: The use of case-crossover designs has become widespread in epidemiological and medical investigations of transient associations. However, the most popular reference-select strategy, the time-stratified schema, is not a suitable solution for controlling bias in case-crossover studies. To prove this, we conducted a time series decomposition for daily ozone (O3) records; scrutinized the ability of the time-stratified schema on controlling the yearly, monthly and weekly time trends; and found it failed on controlling the weekly time trend. Based on this finding, we proposed a new logistic regression approach in which we did adjustment for the weekly time trend. A comparison between the traditional model and the proposed method was done by simulation. An empirical study was conducted to explore potential associations between air pollutants and AMI hospitalizations. In summary, time-stratified schema provide effective control on yearly and monthly time trends but not on weekly time trend. Therefore, the estimation from the traditional logistical regression basically reveals the effect of weekly time trend, instead of the transient effect. In contrast, the proposed logistic regression with adjustment for weekly time trend can effectively eliminate system bias in case-crossover studies.