Asymptotic expansion of the variance of random zeros on complex manifolds

Abstract: Linear statistics of random zero sets are integrals of smooth differential forms over the zero set and as such are smooth analogues of the volume of the random zero set inside a fixed domain. We derive an asymptotic expansion for the variance of linear statistics of the zero divisors of random holomorphic sections of powers of a positive line bundle on a compact K\"ahler manifold. This expansion sharpens the leading-order asymptotics (in the codimension one case) given by Shiffman--Zelditch in 2010.