On the potential of BFAST for monitoring burned areas using multi-temporal Landsat-7 images

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a semi-automatic approach to map burned areas and assess burn severity that does not require prior knowledge of the fire date. First, we apply BFAST to NDVI time series and estimate statistically abrupt changes in NDVI trends. These estimated changes are then used as plausible fire dates to calculate dNBR following a typical pre-post fire assessment. In addition to its statistical guarantees, this method depends only on a tuning parameter (the bandwidth of the test statistic for changes). This method was applied to Landsat-7 images taken over La Primavera Flora and Fauna Protection Area, in Jalisco, Mexico, from 2003 to 2016. We evaluated BFAST's ability to estimate vegetation changes based on time series with significant observation gaps. We discussed burn severity maps associated with massive wildfires (2005 and 2012) and another with smaller dimensions (2008) that might have been excluded from official records. We validated our 2012 burned area map against a high resolution burned area map obtained from RapidEye images; in zones with moderate data quality, the overall accuracy of our map is 92%.