Upper Tail For Homomorphism Counts In Constrained Sparse Random Graphs

Abstract: Consider the upper tail probability that the homomorphism count of a fixed graph $H$ within a large sparse random graph $G_n$ exceeds its expected value by a fixed factor $1+\delta$. Going beyond the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model, we establish here explicit, sharp upper tail decay rates for sparse random $d_n$-regular graphs (provided $H$ has a regular $2$-core), and for sparse uniform random graphs. We further deal with joint upper tail probabilities for homomorphism counts of multiple graphs $H_1,\ldots, H_k$ (extending the known results for $k=1$), and for inhomogeneous graph ensembles (such as the stochastic block model), we bound the upper tail probability by a variational problem analogous to the one that determines its decay rate in the case of sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs.