Behavior Pattern and Compiled Information Based Performance Prediction in MOOCs

Abstract: With the development of MOOCs massive open online courses, increasingly more subjects can be studied online. Researchers currently show growing interest in the field of MOOCs, including dropout prediction, cheating detection and achievement prediction. Previous studies on achievement prediction mainly focused on students' video and forum behaviors, and few researchers have considered how well students perform their assignments. In this paper, we choose a C programming course as the experimental subject, which involved 1528 students. This paper mainly focuses on the students' accomplishment behaviors in programming assignments and compiled information from programming assignments. In this paper, feature sequences are extracted from the logs according to submission times, submission order and plagiarism. The experimental results show that the students who did not pass the exam had obvious sequence patterns but that the students who passed the test did not have an obvious sequence pattern. Then, we extract 23 features from the compiled information of students' programming assignments and select the most distinguishing features to predict the students' performances. The experimental results show that we can obtain an accuracy rate of 0.7049 for predicting students' performances.