Malaria Incidence in the Philippines: Prediction using the Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Abstract: The study was conducted to develop an appropriate model that could predict the weekly reported Malaria incidence in the Philippines using the Box-Jenkins method.The data were retrieved from the Department of Health(DOH) website in the Philippines. It contains 70 data points of which 60 data points were used in model building and the remaining 10 data points were used for forecast evaluation. The R Statistical Software was used to do all the necessary computations in the study. Box-Cox Transformation and Differencing was done to make the series stationary. Based on the results of the analysis, ARIMA (2, 1, 0) is the appropriate model for the weekly Malaria incidence in the Philippines.