Location, orbit and energy of a meteoroid impacting the moon during the Lunar Eclipse of January 21, 2019

Abstract: During lunar eclipse of January 21, 2019 a meteoroid impacted the Moon producing a visible light flash. The impact was witnessed by casual observers offering an opportunity to study the phenomenon from multiple geographical locations. We use images and videos collected by observers in 7 countries to estimate the location, impact parameters (speed and incoming direction) and energy of the meteoroid. Using parallax, we achieve determining the impact location at lat. $-29.43^{+0.30}_{-0.21}$, lon. $-67.89^{+0.07}_{-0.09}$ and geocentric distance as 356553 km. After devising and applying a photo-metric procedure for measuring flash standard magnitudes in multiple RGB images having different exposure times, we found that the flash, had an average G-magnitude $\langle G\rangle = 6.7\pm0.3$. We use gravitational ray tracing (GRT) to estimate the orbital properties and likely radiant of the impactor. We find that the meteoroid impacted the moon with a speed of $14^{+7}_{-6}$ km/s (70% C.L.) and at a shallow angle, $\theta < 38.2$ degrees. Assuming a normal error for our estimated flash brightness, educated priors for the luminous efficiency and object density, and using the GRT-computed probability distributions of impact speed and incoming directions, we calculate posterior probability distributions for the kinetic energy (median $K_{\rm med}$ = 0.8 kton), body mass ($M_{\rm med}$ = 27 kg) and diameter ($d_{\rm med}$ = 29 cm), and crater size ($D_{\rm med}$ = 9 m). If our assumptions are correct, the crater left by the impact could be detectable by prospecting lunar probes. These results arose from a timely collaboration between professional and amateur astronomers which highlight the potential importance of citizen science in astronomy.