Evolution and Probability

Abstract: Life forms exhibit such a degree of exquisite organization that it seems impossible that they could have developed out of a process of trial and error, as intimated by the theory of Darwinian evolution. In this general public paper I discuss how differential reproduction rates work in producing an exceedingly high degree of improbability, and the conceptual tools of the theory of evolution help us to predict, to some degree, the course of evolution -- as it is routinely done, e.g., in the process leading to the yearly influenza vaccines.