Method for Quantitative Estimation of the Risk Propagation Threshold in Electric Power CPS Based on Seepage Probability

Abstract: Because of the non-uniformity of the electric power CPS network and the dynamic nature of the risk propagation process, it is difficult to quantify the critical point of a cyber risk explosion. From the perspective of the dependency network, this paper proposes a method for quantitative evaluation of the risk propagation threshold of power CPS networks based on the percolation theory. First, the power CPS network is abstracted as a dual-layered network-directed unweighted graph according to topology correlation and coupling logic, and the asymmetrical balls-into-bins allocation method is used to establish a "one-to-many" and "partially coupled" non-uniform power CPS characterization model. Then, considering the directionality between the cyber layer and the physical layer link, the probability of percolation flow is introduced to establish the propagation dynamic equations for the internal coupling relationship of each layer. Finally, the risk propagation threshold is numerically quantified by defining the survival function of power CPS network nodes, and the validity of the proposed method is verified by the IEEE 30-bus system and 150-node Barabsi-Albert model.