On the Erdős Covering Problem: the density of the uncovered set

Abstract: Since their introduction by Erd\H{o}s in 1950, covering systems (that is, finite collections of arithmetic progressions that cover the integers) have been extensively studied, and numerous questions and conjectures have been posed regarding the existence of covering systems with various properties. In particular, Erd\H{o}s asked if the moduli can be distinct and all arbitrarily large, Erd\H{o}s and Selfridge asked if the moduli can be distinct and all odd, and Schinzel conjectured that in any covering system there exists a pair of moduli, one of which divides the other. Another beautiful conjecture, proposed by Erd\H{o}s and Graham in 1980, states that if the moduli are distinct elements of the interval $[n,Cn]$, and $n$ is sufficiently large, then the density of integers uncovered by the union is bounded below by a constant (depending only on $C$). This conjecture was confirmed (in a strong form) by Filaseta, Ford, Konyagin, Pomerance and Yu in 2007, who moreover asked whether the same conclusion holds if the moduli are distinct and sufficiently large, and $\sum_{i=1}^k \frac{1}{d_i} < C$. Although this condition turns out not to be sufficiently strong to imply the desired conclusion, as the main result of this paper we will give an essentially best possible condition which is sufficient. Our method has a number of further applications. Most importantly, we prove the conjecture of Schinzel stated above, which was made in 1967. We moreover give an alternative (somewhat simpler) proof of a breakthrough result of Hough, who resolved Erd\H{o}s' minimum modulus problem, with an improved bound on the smallest difference. Finally, we make further progress on the problem of Erd\H{o}s and Selfridge.