Deriving Enhanced Geographical Representations via Similarity-based Spectral Analysis: Predicting Colorectal Cancer Survival Curves in Iowa

Abstract: Neural networks are capable of learning rich, nonlinear feature representations shown to be beneficial in many predictive tasks. In this work, we use such models to explore different geographical feature representations in the context of predicting colorectal cancer survival curves for patients in the state of Iowa, spanning the years 1989 to 2013. Specifically, we compare model performance using "area between the curves" (ABC) to assess (a) whether survival curves can be reasonably predicted for colorectal cancer patients in the state of Iowa, (b) whether geographical features improve predictive performance, (c) whether a simple binary representation, or a richer, spectral analysis-elicited representation perform better, and (d) whether spectral analysis-based representations can be improved upon by leveraging geographically-descriptive features. In exploring (d), we devise a similarity-based spectral analysis procedure, which allows for the combination of geographically relational and geographically descriptive features. Our findings suggest that survival curves can be reasonably estimated on average, with predictive performance deviating at the five-year survival mark among all models. We also find that geographical features improve predictive performance, and that better performance is obtained using richer, spectral analysis-elicited features. Furthermore, we find that similarity-based spectral analysis-elicited representations improve upon the original spectral analysis results by approximately 40%.