Predicting Natural Hazards with Neuronal Networks

Abstract: Gravitational mass flows, such as avalanches, debris flows and rockfalls are common events in alpine regions with high impact on transport routes. Within the last few decades, hazard zone maps have been developed to systematically approach this threat. These maps mark vulnerable zones in habitable areas to allow effective planning of hazard mitigation measures and development of settlements. Hazard zone maps have shown to be an effective tool to reduce fatalities during extreme events. They are created in a complex process, based on experience, empirical models, physical simulations and historical data. The generation of such maps is therefore expensive and limited to crucially important regions, e.g. permanently inhabited areas. In this work we interpret the task of hazard zone mapping as a classification problem. Every point in a specific area has to be classified according to its vulnerability. On a regional scale this leads to a segmentation problem, where the total area has to be divided in the respective hazard zones. The recent developments in artificial intelligence, namely convolutional neuronal networks, have led to major improvement in a very similar task, image classification and semantic segmentation, i.e. computer vision. We use a convolutional neuronal network to identify terrain formations with the potential for catastrophic snow avalanches and label points in their reach as vulnerable. Repeating this procedure for all points allows us to generate an artificial hazard zone map. We demonstrate that the approach is feasible and promising based on the hazard zone map of the Tirolean Oberland. However, more training data and further improvement of the method is required before such techniques can be applied reliably.