Changes in Ugandan Climate Rainfall at the Village and Forest Level

Abstract: In 2013, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency refined the historical rainfall estimates over the African Continent and produced the African Rainfall Climate version 2.0 (ARC2) estimator. ARC2 offers a nearly complete record of daily rainfall estimates since 1983 at 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. Despite short-term anomalies in twice-yearly rainy season intensities in Uganda, we identify an overall decrease in average rainfall of about 12% during the past 34 years. Spatiotemporally, these decreases are greatest in agricultural regions of central and western Uganda, but are also reflective of rainfall decreases in the gorilla habitat within the Bwindi Forest in Southwest Uganda. The findings carry significant implications for agriculture, food security, and wildlife habitat.