The Geometry of Limit State Function Graphs and Subset Simulation

Abstract: In the last fifteen the subset sampling method has often been used in reliability problems as a tool for calculating small probabilities. This method is extrapolating from an initial Monte Carlo estimate for the probability content of a failure domain found by a suitable higher level of the original limit state function. Then iteratively conditional probabilities are estimated for failures domains decreasing to the original failure domain. But there are assumptions not immediately obvious about the structure of the failure domains which must be fulfilled that the method works properly. Here examples are studied that show that at least in some cases if these premises are not fulfilled, inaccurate results may be obtained. For the further development of the subset sampling method it is certainly desirable to find approaches where it is possible to check that these implicit assumptions are not violated. Also it would be probably important to develop further improvements of the concept to get rid of these limitations.