Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks: from edge-based compartmental to pairwise models

Abstract: This paper presents a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model for epidemics with arbitrary distributions of transmission and recovery times. Using the message passing approach we also derive a new pairwise-like model for epidemics with Markovian transmission and an arbitrary recovery period. The new pairwise-like model allows one to formally prove that the message passing and edge-based compartmental models are equivalent in the case of Markovian transmission and arbitrary recovery processes. The edge-based and message passing models are conjectured to also be equivalent for arbitrary transmission processes; we show the first step of a full proof of this. The new pairwise-like model encompasses many existing well-known models that can be obtained by appropriate reductions. It is also amenable to a relatively straightforward numerical implementation. We test the theoretical results by comparing the numerical solutions of the various pairwise-like models to results based on explicit stochastic network simulations.