The Role of PMESII Modeling in a Continuous Cycle of Anticipation and Action

Abstract: The inevitable incompleteness of any collection of PMESII models, along with poorly understood methods for combining heterogeneous models, leads to major uncertainty regarding the reliability of computational tools. This uncertainty is further exacerbated by difficulties in validation of such tools. They should only be used as aids to human analysis and decision-making. A practitioner must wonder: how can we accommodate the uncertainty of a tool's results by applying human judgment appropriately? In this paper, we describe two examples where planners and analysts used (or could have used) computational tools to obtain estimates of effects of various actions under consideration. Then they considered these computational estimates to draw their own conclusions regarding the effects that would likely emerge from proposed actions taken by the international mission. The key idea, in both of our examples, is a continuous cycle of anticipations and actions; in each cycle computational estimates of effects help intervention managers determine appropriate actions, and then assessments of real-world outcomes guide the next increment of computational estimates. With a proper methodology, PMESII modeling tools can offer valuable insights and encourage learning, even if they will never produce fully accurate estimates useable in a customary, strictly predictive manner.