Maximising the detection probability of kilonovae associated with gravitational wave observations

Abstract: Estimates of the source sky location for gravitational wave signals are likely span areas ranging up to hundreds of square degrees or more, making it very challenging for most telescopes to search for counterpart signals in the electromagnetic spectrum. To boost the chance of successfully observing such counterparts, we have developed an algorithm which optimizes the number of observing fields and their corresponding time allocations by maximizing the detection probability. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we optimize follow-up observations targeting kilonovae using telescopes including CTIO-Dark Energy Camera, Subaru-HyperSuprimeCam, Pan-STARRS and Palomar Transient Factory. We consider three simulated gravitational wave events with 90% credible error regions spanning areas from ~30 deg^2 to ~300 deg^2. Assuming a source at 200 Mpc, we demonstrate that to obtain a maximum detection probability, there is an optimized number of fields for any particular event that a telescope should observe. To inform future telescope design studies, we present the maximum detection probability and corresponding number of observing fields for a combination of limiting magnitudes and fields-of-view over a range of parameters. We show that for large gravitational wave error regions, telescope sensitivity rather than field-of-view, is the dominating factor in maximizing the detection probability.