Defining and identifying Sleeping Beauties in science

Abstract: A Sleeping Beauty (SB) in science refers to a paper whose importance is not recognized for several years after publication. Its citation history exhibits a long hibernation period followed by a sudden spike of popularity. Previous studies suggest a relative scarcity of SBs. The reliability of this conclusion is, however, heavily dependent on identification methods based on arbitrary threshold parameters for sleeping time and number of citations, applied to small or monodisciplinary bibliographic datasets. Here we present a systematic, large-scale, and multidisciplinary analysis of the SB phenomenon in science. We introduce a parameter-free measure that quantifies the extent to which a specific paper can be considered an SB. We apply our method to 22 million scientific papers published in all disciplines of natural and social sciences over a time span longer than a century. Our results reveal that the SB phenomenon is not exceptional. There is a continuous spectrum of delayed recognition where both the hibernation period and the awakening intensity are taken into account. Although many cases of SBs can be identified by looking at monodisciplinary bibliographic data, the SB phenomenon becomes much more apparent with the analysis of multidisciplinary datasets, where we can observe many examples of papers achieving delayed yet exceptional importance in disciplines different from those where they were originally published. Our analysis emphasizes a complex feature of citation dynamics that so far has received little attention, and also provides empirical evidence against the use of short-term citation metrics in the quantification of scientific impact.

• The paper introduces a novel, parameter-free "beauty coefficient" to quantify delayed recognition and identifies "Sleeping Beauties" across 22 million multidisciplinary papers.
• Applying the coefficient reveals Sleeping Beauties are not outliers but part of a continuous distribution of delayed recognition across diverse disciplines.
• The findings highlight the need to adopt a long-term view for evaluating scientific impact and offer a framework for systematic identification that could inform academic evaluations.

Defining and Identifying Sleeping Beauties in Science

The concept of "Sleeping Beauties" (SBs) in scientific literature describes papers whose significance remains unrecognized for several years post-publication, only to later rise to prominence. This phenomenon is characterized by a dormant period of low citations followed by a spike upon awakening. Historically, the identification of SBs has been limited by arbitrarily defined parameters and mono-disciplinary analyses, often underestimating the prevalence of such works. This paper presents a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach to identifying SBs across an extensive dataset of 22 million scientific papers published over more than a century, introducing a novel parameter-free method for quantifying delayed recognition through a "beauty coefficient."

Key Contributions

1. Parameter-Free Measurement: The authors developed a "beauty coefficient," denoted by B, which quantitatively assesses the extent of delay in a paper's recognition. Unlike previous methods, this index does not rely on predefined thresholds for determining hibernation periods or citation counts, thus offering a continuous measure of delayed impact.
2. Large-Scale Multidisciplinary Analysis: By applying the B coefficient to a vast dataset encompassing various disciplines, the study reveals that Sleeping Beauties are not atypical. The distribution of B is continuous with no natural demarcation separating SBs from normally cited papers, challenging earlier views that SBs were statistical outliers.
3. Diverse Disciplinary Insights: The study highlights the multidisciplinary nature of SBs, identifying prominent examples across fields such as physics, chemistry, and mathematics. Notably, it underscores how SBs often gain importance in disciplines different from those in which they were published, indicating cross-disciplinary re-evaluation of scientific contributions.
4. Evaluation of Citation Dynamics Models: The research tested existing citation dynamics models like Cumulative Advantage and Preferential Attachment against the empirical distributions of B. The results indicate these models, particularly in their traditional forms, struggle to account for the observed patterns in delayed recognition.

Implications and Future Directions

The findings underscore the necessity of adopting a long-term view when evaluating a scientific paper's impact, as reliance on short-term citation metrics may overlook future SBs. This work encourages further development of more sophisticated models of citation dynamics capable of encapsulating delayed recognition mechanisms.

Practically, the ability to identify SBs systematically could inform funding decisions, authorship evaluations, and enhance the transparency of academic prestige dynamics. Additionally, recognizing the significance of SBs could foster an academic culture that is more tolerant and supportive of innovative, yet initially overlooked, research.

Theoretical advancements could also emerge from integrating insights on why some papers become SBs, exploring underlying factors such as shifts in research paradigms, emergence of new methodologies, or interdisciplinary integration. The study paves the way for further explorations into the social and cognitive mechanisms that lead to the re-evaluation of scientific contributions over time.

Conclusion

This systematic exploration of Sleeping Beauties fundamentally shifts the understanding of scientific impact over time. By removing arbitrary thresholds and extending the analysis across disciplines, the study not only broadens the scope of what is considered a significant scientific contribution but also provides a methodological framework for ongoing research into the dynamics of scientific recognition and impact.