Probabilistic Forecast of Real-Time LMP and Network Congestion

Abstract: The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability distribution of the real-time LMP/congestion is obtained. The proposed method incorporates load/generation forecast, time varying operation constraints, and contingency models. By shifting the computation cost associated with multiparametric programs offline, the online computation cost is significantly reduced. An online simulation technique by generating critical regions dynamically is also proposed, which results in several orders of magnitude improvement in the computational cost over standard Monte Carlo methods.