Impact of model choice on LR assessment in case of rare haplotype match (frequentist approach)

Abstract: The likelihood ratio (LR) measures the relative weight of forensic data regarding two hypotheses. Several levels of uncertainty arise if frequentist methods are chosen for its assessment: the assumed population model only approximates the true one and its parameters are estimated through a database. Moreover, it may be wise to discard part of data, especially that only indirectly related to the hypotheses. Different reductions define different LRs. Therefore, it is more sensible to talk about "a" LR instead of "the" LR, and the error involved in the estimation should be quantified. Two frequentist methods are proposed in the light of these points for the `rare type match problem', that is when a match between the perpetrator's and the suspect's DNA profile, never observed before in the database of reference, is to be evaluated.