Fitting Afterglows With Multi-Dimensional Simulations

Abstract: We present preliminary data fit results of synthetic light curves computed from numerical afterglow blast wave simulations. Our technique uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a new data analysis tool, ScaleFit. Scaling relations in both the hydrodynamics and radiation equations allow light curves to be parameterized by a small set of scale-invariant characteristic quantities. These quantities have been calculated and tabulated from high resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations. Producing a light curve from the characteristics takes only a millisecond, allowing for the use of MCMC data fitting techniques which can require millions of iterations. ScaleFit is a portable, lightweight, python package which performs this analysis on afterglow light curves. Using the set of Swift-XRT light curves from 2011 & 2012 with known redshifts, we find ScaleFit can measure the jet opening angle, observer angle, and spectral index of most afterglows. Globally we find gamma-ray burst afterglows tend to be observed off axis, at a significant fraction of the jet opening angle.