Predictive use of the Maximum Entropy Production principle for Past and Present Climates

Abstract: In this paper, we show how the MEP hypothesis may be used to build simple climate models without representing explicitly the energy transport by the atmosphere. The purpose is twofold. First, we assess the performance of the MEP hypothesis by comparing a simple model with minimal input data to a complex, state-of-the-art General Circulation Model. Next, we show how to improve the realism of MEP climate models by including climate feedbacks, focusing on the case of the water-vapour feedback. We also discuss the dependence of the entropy production rate and predicted surface temperature on the resolution of the model.