Inverse Modeling of Dynamical Systems: Multi-Dimensional Extensions of a Stochastic Switching Problem

Abstract: The Buridan's ass paradox is characterized by perpetual indecision between two states, which are never attained. When this problem is formulated as a dynamical system, indecision is modeled by a discrete-state Markov process determined by the system's unknown parameters. Interest lies in estimating these parameters from a limited number of observations. We compare estimation methods and examine how well each can be generalized to multi-dimensional extensions of this system. By quantifying statistics such as mean, variance, frequency, and cumulative power, we construct both method of moments type estimators and likelihood-based estimators. We show, however, why these techniques become intractable in higher dimensions, and thus develop a geometric approach to reveal the parameters underlying the Markov process. We also examine the robustness of this method to the presence of noise.