Ensemble Averaging for Dynamical Systems under Fast Oscillating Random Boundary Conditions

Abstract: This paper is devoted to provide a theoretical underpinning for ensemble forecasting with rapid fluctuations in body forcing and in boundary conditions. Ensemble averaging principles are proved under suitable `mixing' conditions on random boundary conditions and on random body forcing. The ensemble averaged model is a nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation, with the deviation process (i.e., the approximation error process) quantified as the solution of a linear stochastic partial differential equation.