Estimating Omissions from Searches

Abstract: The mark-recapture method was devised by Petersen in 1896 to estimate the number of fish migrating into the Limfjord, and independently by Lincoln in 1930 to estimate waterfowl abundance. The technique applies to any search for a finite number of items by two or more people or agents, allowing the number of searched-for items to be estimated. This ubiquitous problem appears in fields from ecology and epidemiology, through to mathematics, social sciences, and computing. Here we exactly calculate the moments of the hypergeometric distribution associated with this long-standing problem, confirming that widely used estimates conjectured in 1951 are often too small. Our Bayesian approach highlights how different search strategies will modify the estimates. As an example, we assess the accuracy of a systematic literature review, an application we recommend.