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Bayesian analysis of variable-order, reversible Markov chains (1105.2640v1)
Published 13 May 2011 in math.ST and stat.TH
Abstract: We define a conjugate prior for the reversible Markov chain of order $r$. The prior arises from a partially exchangeable reinforced random walk, in the same way that the Beta distribution arises from the exchangeable Poly\'{a} urn. An extension to variable-order Markov chains is also derived. We show the utility of this prior in testing the order and estimating the parameters of a reversible Markov model.
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