Semi-Markov Graph Dynamics

Abstract: In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The model consists in subordinating the Markov chain to the semi-Markov counting process. In simple words, this means that the chain transitions occur at random time instants called epochs. The model is quite rich and its possible connections with algebraic geometry are briefly discussed. Moreover, for the sake of simplicity, we focus on the space of undirected graphs with a fixed number of nodes. However, in an example, we present an interbank market model where it is meaningful to use directed graphs or even weighted graphs.