Maximum-Entropy Weighting of Multi-Component Earth Climate Models

Abstract: A maximum entropy-based framework is presented for the synthesis of projections from multiple Earth climate models. This identifies the most representative (most probable) model from a set of climate models -- as defined by specified constraints -- eliminating the need to calculate the entire set. Two approaches are developed, based on individual climate models or ensembles of models, subject to a single cost (energy) constraint or competing cost-benefit constraints. A finite-time limit on the minimum cost of modifying a model synthesis framework, at finite rates of change, is also reported.