Covariance fitting of highly correlated data in lattice QCD

Abstract: We address a frequently asked question on the covariance fitting of the highly correlated data such as our $B_K$ data based on the SU(2) staggered chiral perturbation theory. Basically, the essence of the problem is that we do not have an accurate fitting function enough to fit extremely precise data. When eigenvalues of the covariance matrix are small, even a tiny error of fitting function yields large chi-square and spoils the fitting procedure. We have applied a number of prescriptions available in the market such as the cut-off method, modified covariance matrix method, and Bayesian method. We also propose a brand new method, the eigenmode shift method which allows a full covariance fitting without modifying the covariance matrix at all. In our case, the eigenmode shift (ES) method and Bayesian method turn out to be the best prescription to the problem. We also provide a pedagogical example of data analysis in which the diagonal approximation and the cut-off method fail in fitting manifestly, but the ES method and the Bayesian approach work well.