Epistemic and systematic uncertainties in Monte Carlo simulation: an investigation in proton Bragg peak simulation

Abstract: The issue of how epistemic uncertainties affect the outcome of Monte Carlo simulation is discussed by means of a concrete use case: the simulation of the longitudinal energy deposition profile of low energy protons. A variety of electromagnetic and hadronic physics models is investigated, and their effects are analyzed. Possible systematic effects are highlighted. The results identify requirements for experimental measurements capable of reducing epistemic uncertainties in the physics models.