Insuring against loss of evidence in game-theoretic probability (1005.1811v2)

Published 11 May 2010 in math.ST, math.PR, q-fin.TR, and stat.TH

Abstract: We consider the game-theoretic scenario of testing the performance of Forecaster by Sceptic who gambles against the forecasts. Sceptic's current capital is interpreted as the amount of evidence he has found against Forecaster. Reporting the maximum of Sceptic's capital so far exaggerates the evidence. We characterize the set of all increasing functions that remove the exaggeration. This result can be used for insuring against loss of evidence.

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