Joint Detection and Identification of an Unobservable Change in the Distribution of a Random Sequence

Abstract: This paper examines the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the probability distribution function (pdf) of a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables to one of finitely many alternative pdf's. The objective is quick detection of the change and accurate inference of the ensuing pdf. Following a Bayesian approach, a new sequential decision strategy for this problem is revealed and is proven optimal. Geometrical properties of this strategy are demonstrated via numerical examples.