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Verification of Market-Specificity of Impact Relaxation Magnitude Using Metaorder Data

Ascertain, using metaorder-level data, whether the approximately 20% relaxation magnitude observed after execution in the MDQR-simulated market impact profile is specific to the Bund futures market, and quantify its market-specificity.

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Background

The MDQR model incorporating trade imbalance features reproduces a market impact profile consistent with theoretical and empirical findings, including a concave execution phase and post-execution relaxation. The observed relaxation stabilizes at roughly a 20% reduction after completion of a TWAP metaorder.

The authors note that confirming whether this relaxation magnitude is specific to the Bund market would require access to metaorder (meta-trade) data, which they do not have, leaving the market-specificity of the magnitude unverified.

References

Furthermore, the observed pattern closely matches theoretical predictions~\citep{zarinelli2015beyond, bouchaud2018trades} and corresponds to the theoretical market impact profile presented in Figure~\ref{fig:MI_theoretical}, though with a subtle concavity in the execution phase and a relaxation stabilizing at a modest 20\% reduction---a magnitude whose market-specificity cannot be verified without meta-trade data.

Deep Learning Meets Queue-Reactive: A Framework for Realistic Limit Order Book Simulation (2501.08822 - Bodor et al., 15 Jan 2025) in Section: Results — Market Impact