Unknown LSST ISO detection count

Determine the expected number of interstellar objects that the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will detect, providing a quantitative detection forecast that reconciles current widely varying estimates.

Background

The paper highlights that, despite growing theoretical work on interstellar objects (ISOs), current predictions for how many ISOs LSST will detect vary by orders of magnitude, indicating that the field lacks a consolidated, empirically grounded forecast.

Accurate detection count predictions are important for planning observational strategies, evaluating survey performance, and determining the statistical power needed to discriminate between competing chemodynamical and kinematic models of ISOs.

References

It is currently unknown how many ISOs Rubin's LSST will detect: the theoretical predictions are at a nascent state.

— Predicting Interstellar Object Chemodynamics with Gaia (2402.04904 - Hopkins et al., 7 Feb 2024) in Section 4.3 (Predictions and Model Testing by Future Surveys Such as LSST)