Adaptation to drastic changes in water availability

Determine how societies can adapt to drastic changes in water availability associated with the projected intensification of Iranian drought conditions under continued anthropogenic climate change.

Background

The GCMagicc projections indicate that the probability of an Iranian drought state comparable to the late-2025 condition is expected to increase substantially by 2041–2060 under SSP2-4.5. The authors interpret this as a major future water-availability challenge with potential implications for agriculture, food security, migration, infrastructure, and conflict.

The paper explicitly leaves unresolved the societal response to these projected changes, framing adaptation to drastically altered water availability as an unknown rather than presenting an adaptation strategy or solution.