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Repeated precise commitments can outperform the single-round Stackelberg optimum

Establish the existence of a sequence of leader mixed strategies (p_L^t) in an infinitely repeated Stackelberg game such that, when followers best respond each round, the leader’s long-run average payoff liminf_{T→∞} (1/T) ∑_{t=1}^T E_{a_L∼p_L^t}[u(a_L, a_F^t)] exceeds the single-round precise Stackelberg value V^*.

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Background

The authors speculate that non-stationary (time-varying) precise commitments in repeated interactions could realize payoffs comparable to those achieved by ambiguous commitments in one-shot games. This conjecture formalizes that intuition by positing a sequence that strictly improves upon the single-shot Stackelberg value.

A proof or counterexample would clarify the relationship between ambiguity in one-shot games and dynamic strategies in repeated settings, and would connect robust commitment analysis to calibrated learning dynamics discussed elsewhere in the paper.

References

CONJECTURE: there exists a sequence $(p_Lt)_{t \in \mathbb{N}}$ such that \begin{align*} \liminf_{T \rightarrow \infty} \frac{1}{T} \sum_{t = 1}T \mathbb{E}_{a_L \sim p_Lt}[u(a_L, a_Ft)] > V*, \end{align*} where $a_Ft$ is the best response to $p_Lt$.

The Value of Ambiguous Commitments in Multi-Follower Games (2409.05608 - Collina et al., 9 Sep 2024) in Conjecture, ARCHIVE – Repeated Precise Commitments For Multiple Followers