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Probability that a low-height sumset of early generators contains a prime

Determine, in the Erdős–Rényi-type random numerical semigroup model (p), the probability that the m-fold sumset G of the first k selected generators (conditioned to lie in {1, …, 2k/p}), with m exceeding log log(1/p), contains at least one prime number; quantify this probability as a function of p and the parameters k and m.

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Background

To potentially remove extra logarithmic factors from their upper bounds, the authors propose replacing a large random prime generator by a prime drawn from a small sumset built from the first few generators selected by the ER-type process. They argue that if primes behaved like a random set of density 1/ln n, such a sumset would be expected to contain a prime.

A key missing step for this approach is to rigorously estimate the probability that this sumset indeed contains a small prime; resolving this would enable a refined bound and possibly reduce the logarithmic overhead.

References

We do not know how to estimate the probability that G actually contains a small prime, but if it were possible to do so, then this prime could replace q in the proof of the main theorem and nearly eliminate one of the log factors.

Improved Upper Bounds on Key Invariants of Erdős-Rényi Numerical Semigroups (2411.13767 - Bogart et al., 21 Nov 2024) in Section 5: Experiments, Conclusions, and Future Work