Principled phase-order selection for MAPH models

Develop a principled method for selecting the number of transient phases in Multi-Absorbing Phase-Type (MAPH) models rather than relying solely on externally chosen model-size criteria.

Background

The MAPH model uses a phase order mm that is selected externally, while the paper's experiments show that fit quality, computational cost, and convergence behavior depend on this choice. The conclusion explicitly identifies principled phase-order selection as an unresolved issue.

References

Principled phase-order selection also remains open.

— Multi-Absorbing Phase-Type Distributions for Right-Censored Competing Risks Data  (2609.19921 - Qiao et al., 17 Sep 2026) in Section 6, Conclusion