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Finite-sample non-degenerate e-variable for mean-zero distributions with unknown variance

Construct a finite-sample, non-degenerate e-variable for the composite null P = { distributions on R with E[X] = 0 and Var(X) ∈ (0,∞) } that does not rely on a known bound on the variance. The e-variable must satisfy E^P[E] ≤ 1 for every P in this class, and must not collapse to a constant (degenerate) value.

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Background

The authors present an asymptotic e-variable for testing mean-zero under unknown variance, exploiting asymptotic normality of S_n/V_n. They remark that non-asymptotic e-variables exist when a variance bound is available, but note a gap in the finite-sample theory for the case of unknown (and unbounded) variance.

This highlights a specific unresolved construction problem: to design a finite-sample e-variable that is valid for all distributions with mean zero and finite (but unknown) variance, and that is not trivially degenerate.

References

"Indeed, for the above P, we do not know of non-asymptotic e-variables that are not degenerate (like constants)."

Hypothesis testing with e-values (2410.23614 - Ramdas et al., 31 Oct 2024) in Section 2.9 (Asymptotic e-variables)