Finite-sample non-degenerate e-variable for mean-zero distributions with unknown variance
Construct a finite-sample, non-degenerate e-variable for the composite null P = { distributions on R with E[X] = 0 and Var(X) ∈ (0,∞) } that does not rely on a known bound on the variance. The e-variable must satisfy E^P[E] ≤ 1 for every P in this class, and must not collapse to a constant (degenerate) value.
References
"Indeed, for the above P, we do not know of non-asymptotic e-variables that are not degenerate (like constants)."
— Hypothesis testing with e-values
(2410.23614 - Ramdas et al., 31 Oct 2024) in Section 2.9 (Asymptotic e-variables)