Determine the relative timing of the optical and mid-infrared flares

Determine whether the optical flare in WISE J2244+0816 preceded, coincided with, or followed the mid-infrared flare, thereby constraining the location and geometry of the reprocessing dust.

Background

The six-month cadence of WISE permits only an upper limit of approximately 105 days on the lag between the optical and mid-infrared flare peaks. The available data are also formally consistent with the mid-infrared peak occurring before the optical peak, although the authors regard that ordering as physically unlikely.

A better-cadenced optical and mid-infrared light curve would establish the flare ordering and help distinguish dust reprocessing near the central supermassive black hole from reprocessing farther out in the AGN accretion disk.

References

Had the optical and mid-infrared peaks been simultaneous, we would not know; indeed, the WISE data are, in principle, consistent with a mid-infrared peak preceding the optical peak, though that is physically unlikely.

— Extreme AGN Variability in WISE: Powerful Flares and Candidate Tidal Disruption Events in AGN  (2609.01421 - Upadhyayula et al., 1 Sep 2026) in Section 6.3, “Scenario 1: TDE by an SMBH”