Distinguish genuine eclipses from intrinsic flare variability

Determine whether each apparently eclipsed flare observation of PSR J1048+2339 is caused by occultation or instead by intrinsic variability of the flaring system.

Background

The lower limit on the optical eclipse duration is inferred statistically because an observed absence of a flare during the nominal eclipse phase does not uniquely demonstrate occultation. A flare may simply have varied or ended during that interval.

The authors therefore use simulations of randomly placed observed flares to estimate the probability that the observed pattern can be reproduced for different assumed eclipse durations. The underlying event-by-event distinction between occultation and intrinsic variability remains unresolved.

References

The above method is straightforward but it is not applicable to the lower-limit measurement because the real eclipse duration can always be shorter than the observed eclipse duration (i.e., we do not know whether an eclipsed data is really caused by eclipse or just the variability of the system).

— Sharpening the Mass Measurement of PSR J1048+2339 via High-Cadence Photometry  (2609.08456 - Li et al., 8 Sep 2026) in Section 2.3, “Eclipse Duration”