Investigate bias from mis-specified lag structures between policy announcements and epidemic outcomes

Investigate whether mis-specifying the lag length between national policy announcements and observed epidemic outcomes in time-series regression models biases estimated policy effects, and characterize the nature and direction of any such bias under plausible epidemic dynamics.

Background

The paper argues that 2-week and 4-week lags used between policy announcements and outcomes (cases or deaths) are implausibly short given biological and reporting delays. The author raises the question of whether lag mis-specification can bias results, potentially even flipping the apparent direction of policy effects.

This uncertainty is explicitly acknowledged as unclear, motivating a need to formally analyze the consequences of lag mis-specification in epidemic policy-effect regressions.