Identify the beliefs formed during bidding

Determine whether descriptions of the opponent change participants’ beliefs while they are bidding in the repeated dynamic all-pay auction.

Background

Participants’ beliefs about the opponent were measured only once, through a guess after the final round. Because this retrospective measure cannot establish what participants believed at the moment of bidding, the mechanism through which disclosure affects behavior remains unresolved. Eliciting beliefs during play is needed to determine whether the descriptions alter beliefs before behavioral differences emerge.

References

A second gap is beliefs. Our only measure of what participants took the opponent to be is a single guess after the final round, which cannot establish what they believed while bidding.

— People escalate against a competitor labelled human and hold back against one labelled an optimising machine  (2609.21439 - Ferraz et al., 18 Sep 2026) in Discussion