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Establish whether GW231123 exhibits measurable spin precession

Determine whether the gravitational-wave signal GW231123 shows statistically significant spin precession by constructing a robust assessment that overcomes the present ambiguity indicated by precession signal-to-noise ratio and Bayes-factor analyses.

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Background

The authors compute Bayes factors favoring precession and a precession SNR, but due to uncertainties and model disagreements they cannot make a confident claim of precession for GW231123.

Clarifying the presence or absence of precession in this event would inform constraints on spin orientations, recoil velocities, and formation scenarios.

References

We are therefore unable to confidently claim precession in GW231123.

GW231123: a Binary Black Hole Merger with Total Mass 190-265 $M_{\odot}$ (2507.08219 - Collaboration et al., 10 Jul 2025) in Section 4, Source properties — Subsection Inference